It’s coming.
Another round of “What about the CHILDREN” baseball
columns. How, in heaven’s name, can we possibly induct steroid users into
the Church of Cooperstown? But they’re coming, make no mistake.
There’s no way to keep them out. Most importantly, we (yes, “we”)
shouldn’t try. Some of them clearly belong among the all-time greats in
baseball history. Not based on their numbers, because those were really
silly, but based on the fact that they were the best players in baseball while
they were active, or considered the among the best at their positions, or any
of the other criteria we use to “define” a HOFer. I think I’ve written
before – it’s a gut-check for me, anyway.
But time grows short, and this may be obsolete before I even
post it, but here goes. First, the guys who re-appear on the ballot this
year, in order of their vote last year:
Jack Morris – he always seemed like a
HOFer while he was active. Consistent, a bulldog, a central role on a
great team. Made a few runs at Cy Young Awards (although he never won
one), won 20 three times, led the league in SOs and Wins a couple of
times. Generally considered an elite pitcher while he was active. 2nd
most similar pitcher is Bob Gibson (but let’s be honest here – the similarity
is primarily due to W/L record, and Gibson was a killer strikeout
pitcher. Morris threw hard, but not to Gibby’s level. I think most
of the similarity is due to their similar levels of assholery). Cons – 1st
most similar pitcher is Denny Martinez. Was great, but never once had
that towering single season where he just mowed people down – was never his
style. Think Cris Carpenter or Andy Pettite. Verdict – out.
Barely.
A postscript on Jack Morris: Joe Posnanski has been killing it this week,
and he wrote a long blog post about Morris that hits a solid point for me: He agrees, generally, that Morris is not a
HOFer by the current “standards”, but he also says that it won’t bother him if
he gets in. I agree 100% - He’s not the
best pitcher not in the Hall, but I’ll be happy for him and my Tiger fan
friends (which are legion) when he gets in.
He (along with Parrish, and Whitaker, and Trammell, and Kirk Gibson) was
a lead dog on one of the best teams of my lifetime, and that team will always be under-represented in the Hall,
because those guys all fell just short of immortality. Morris is the closest, so hey, let ‘er
rip. But I wouldn’t have him on my
ballot.
Jeff Bagwell – A tremendous hitter for a long
period of time, won a Rookie of the Year and an MVP before the PEDs got too
crazy. 1994 season is one of my favorite statistical lines of all time –
hit .368 (in the ASTRODOME), 39 HR, 104 runs, 116 RBI, stole 15 bases, .451
On-base. Four fifty one. He even won the Gold Glove (although let’s
be honest here – a great example of why the GG is completely silly). Had
some really spectacular seasons that didn’t include a silly number of HRs but
did include a ton of runs scored and walks. Could even run a bit.
In the MVP race several times. Cons – hit 449 HR, 2314 hits.
Getting to 475 or 2800 hits would make his case a lot more air-tight.
Verdict – in. It bums me out that he’s not in before all the crazy PED
guys start stealing the oxygen, because they might take the spotlight.
Lee Smith – real good numbers, but he just never
struck me as a HOFer. There were always five guys I’d rather have, even
in his best seasons, and I have this feeling that he never pulled it out in
critical situations, which may be entirely invented on my part. Verdict –
out.
Tim Raines – Jonah Keri thinks that Raines is
the great forgotten talent of his generation, which is a) sorta true, and b)but
only sorta. He was terrific, obviously…had a good long career, stole a
ton of bases, scored a ton of runs, was the second-best leadoff hitter of his
era (okay, maybe the third, with Wade Boggs around), stole a ton of bases, was
an okay fielder, stole a ton of bases. I’m not convinced – you could
definitely win a World Series with him playing a key role, and he did have a
wide range of skills, but – again, he never had that blaze-across-the-sky
season that removed all doubt. He finished in the top 10 in MVP voting
three times. His most-similar player is Lou Brock, who is in the HOF but
probably wouldn’t be if he hadn’t reached 3000 hits. The rest of them are
guys like Kenny Lofton and Max Carey and Johnny Damon and Willie Davis.
Carey is in, but I can’t honestly explain why. Verdict – Out.
Alan Trammell – a good player, but I will never
understand why he’s in the conversation but Lou Whitaker isn’t. A good
player, but never, not once, considered the best player in baseball. Or
the best player on his team. Or the best shortstop in baseball.
Verdict – out.
Edgar Martinez – see Trammell, Alan. Good,
but not great – the only thing in his favor is that there was discussion during
his career as to whether he was the best DH ever, which in my opinion is like
being the best long reliever – it’s proof that they are good, but also proof that
they don’t have a wide base of skills. In Martinez’ case, he couldn’t
field, and he was one of the worst baserunners ever. In my memory,
anyway. But boy, could he hit. Verdict – out.
Fred McGriff – sorta ditto. Good, nearly
great…some really terrific seasons, finished with 493 HR and 2490 hits – if
he’d gotten to 500 and 2500 he’d probably be in already. First four
comparables are Stargell, and McCovey, Bagwell, and Frank Thomas, which is fast
company and pushes him over the line for me. Verdict – in. Barely.
Larry Walker – I was stunned to see that he got
22% of the vote in 2011, his third season on the ballot. He was a good hitter for a few years, won an
MVP once, flirted with .400 once (didn’t he?), but his big seasons were in
Colorado. And they were in
Colorado. I don’t know, I feel like he
was just a more-disciplined version of Dante Bichette. And Dante Bichette ain’t gettin’ in. Verdict – out.
Mark McGwire – ah, yes, Mark McGwire. Cue the rant.
Mark McGwire was a pretty good offensive player before he got all streroided up…even when he hit .235, which he did
in 1987, he juiced it with 116 walks, slugged .470 (a good number in those
days), scored 87 runs in the center of a terrific offense. BUT – at 28 he started breaking down and
spent about three seasons unable to stay on the field. By many accounts, this is when he really started cranking up the
hypodermic needles, and boom – he suddenly stayed mostly healthy and jacked up
his power numbers for five seasons, at which point he started breaking down
again. Those five years were
spectacular, obviously, but without them he’s Dave Kingman or Carlos Pena. AFTER 31, he’s Harmon Killebrew.
To me, the acid test for all of these guys is whether they
were HOF material before it got all silly, and McGwire was clearly not
(until 31, his comps are guys like Nate Colbert and Cecil Fielder and – briefly
– Mark Texiera). To me, that keeps
McGwire out. Verdict – out.
Don Mattingly – one of my favorite players ever,
and I loved him as a rookie, long before he became the RBI machine wrecking
crew that won MVPs for lousy teams. Love
his stance, how he turned his back slightly to the pitcher and would just watch
that breaking ball come in over his shoulder and into the catcher’s mitt. Loved how he would turn on the inside
fastball and just drive it all over the park.
Loved the mustache. Loved that
when he got in a groove you absolutely couldn’t get him out – I’m a big walk
guy, And he was as good a hitter as there was for a few years there…but he had
back problems which a) killed his power, although he was still productive, and
b) ended his career when he was 34 and kept him from piling up any meaningful
career numbers. Verdict – out, sadly.
Dale Murphy – Why Jonah Keri is jazzed up about
Tim Raines instead of this guy is beyond me.
Back-to-back MVPs, durable, led the league in a ton of offensive
categories, multiple Gold Gloves, could run, drew a ton of walks, a great guy by all accounts. Just a terrific all-around player…but he’s
one of those guys that never quite got over the hump. Had
five OPS over .900, but he never got to 1.000. 398 career homers. 1197 runs.
Never a great average hitter, “only” 2111 hits. His peak, while it was very high, was six
seasons – outside of those seasons, he was basically just a guy. For some reason, I can see the hesitancy in
voting him in. Verdict – out. barely.
Rafael Palmeiro – man, I don’t know. He was a really good hitter for a really good
long time – 3000 hits, 569 homers…I don’t know if you can keep him out. But he’s a steroid guy, and you have to ask –
would he have made it if he hadn’t done them?
Unlike in McGwire’s case, where there’s a pretty clear demarcation between
“before” and “after,” Palmeiro was never terrible and never made any kind of
clear leap. He just got better, and
better, and better. In his case, it’s not
that hard to imagine a HOF career from his first five seasons…a total douche,
but a terrific hitter. Verdict – In.
Bernie Williams – another personal
favorite. Won a batting title, was often
mentioned as an MVP candidate, Gold Glover…but was never really the best player
in baseball, let alone on his team, could run but not that much, had some pop
but not a huge amount. Scored a ton of
runs, got on base, had a wide range of skills, but he misses the cut for me,
and I love the guy. Verdict – out.
So, my ballot so far: Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Rafael Palmeiro. Not at all what I expected...